University of Arkansas at Little Rock economist Michael Pakko said Thursday he foresees modest economic growth with steadily improving conditions through 2011 including growth in the residential real-estate market.
Pakko's forecast was part of the Economic Forecast Conference sponsored by the UALR Institute for Economic Advancement and held Thursday morning at the Doubletree Hotel in downtown Little Rock. A former economic forecaster with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Pakko is UALR's chief economist and state forecaster.
"Arkansas has been affected by the national recession, but the impact has been less severe than in other parts of the country," he said.
Pakko attributed that soft impact to three things: the state's ability to avoid economic peaks and valleys; the fact that problems in the national economy were not "homegrown;" and continued growth in industries that are increasingly important to the Arkansas economy.
He believes the recession, which the federal NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee concluded to have begun in December 2007, will ultimately be determined to have run its course in June of this year.
Pakko noted today's numbers that reveal the country's GDP up 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter, its best showing in two years.
"That's very positive news," he said.
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