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#ARPX: What to Watch on Election Day (Robert Coon & Blake Rutherford On Politics)

16 min read

Editor’s Note: Welcome to our penultimate Arkansas Business #ARPX column of 2014! Before next week’s post-election wrap-up, we’ve once again asked Robert Coon and Blake Rutherford to weigh in on what we’ve seen — and will see — in these final days of the midterm campaign.

Lance Turner: According to the secretary of state’s office, 140,112 people had voted early as of Monday. At this time in 2010, 130,243 folks had voted. What does that tell us about how midterm 2014 turnout is trending, and who gets the big benefit, Democrats or Republicans?

Robert Coon: The buzz in political circles for weeks has been about turnout. 

So far, the majority of public polls have shown Republicans leading the marquee races of for Arkansas’ U.S. Senate race and governor. Democrats have responded with the the argument that turnout from their voters is going to be higher than what the polls reflect and ultimately higher than what we saw in 2010. That very well could be true. But it might not.  

Very clearly early voting in this year’s election is up from 2010 (by about 7.5 percent). It’s possible that the increase in early voting indicates a higher overall turnout in 2014, but that’s just speculative. 

All the campaigns are working hard to push as many of their decided voters to get out to the polls early in this election. Accordingly, the increase in early voting numbers might simply be attributable to voters moving from casting their ballots on election day to the early voting period. 

But I do expect turnout in this election to be marginally higher than in 2010, primarily due to the larger number of competitive races we have on the ballot and the corresponding increase of money and focus being paid to get out the vote (GOTV) efforts. But again, I think it would be premature to attribute any increase in turnout to one particular party this early, as both have well orchestrated efforts underway. 

Blake Rutherford: FYI: As of close of business yesterday, the early voting total surpassed 203,000.

In the past, an increase in statewide turnout has favored the Democrats, so naturally they see the increase over 2010 as an advantage. After all, the Democrats’ hope has been to keep the key races within the margin of error and have a combination of new voter registrations and turnout propel them on election day. 

Of course, it matters a great deal where these turnout numbers are, and in that context, Democrats I’ve spoken to feel very good about the increases in traditionally Democratic-heavy Pulaski, Jefferson and Washington counties, over 2010. Unfortunately, we have no publicly available exit polling to demonstrate existing voter preferences for particular candidates, so the best we can do is extrapolate based on past elections. 

That said, the Democrats were probably out of the game without an effective field program and early vote GOTV operation, so this allows them to perpetuate a favorable narrative and maintain enthusiasm within the base.  

Everybody Gets A Raise

LT: Speaking of getting folks to the polls, the Supreme Court said Monday that the minimum wage issue will stay on the ballot. Democrats had banked on minimum wage as a key issue to get their supporters to the polls, but most Republican candidates have said they’d vote for the minimum wage issue too. Has that blunted the voting boost Democrats might have enjoyed had Republicans dug in against the ballot issue?

Robert: Generally speaking, I’d argue that an effort to raise the minimum wage — a populist endeavor — would traditionally help Democrats at the polls. I suspect that Democrats in Arkansas will get some marginal benefit from this being on the ballot, but given the high profile races for governor and U.S. Senate, the minimum wage issue hasn’t gotten as much attention as it normally would, which I think reduces its impact.  

Additionally, public polling has indicated the minimum wage initiative will easily pass. While that’s good for supporters, it also diminishes the urgency associated with getting folks to the polls to ensure its passage. 

And as you’ve noted, many Republican candidates have pledged to vote for the initiative — and the business community hasn’t mounted an effort to defeat it — which make it a low-profile issue on the big stage of this election.

Blake: If the minimum wage issue has any real effect, it will be in the 2nd District race, where Republican French Hill has continued to “study” the matter without taking a firm position. His opponent, Democrat Pat Hays, has been a vocal supporter of the minimum wage increase and has — at least according to polling released last week — been effective at painting Hill as out of touch. Hill’s convoluted and politically curious approach on the minimum wage plays into that narrative. 

Beyond that, I don’t think the issue has any particular effect on the other races. As it pertains to turnout, Democrats believe that a substantial majority of minimum wage supporters will back Democratic candidates. I suspect they’re right, so it will help them mobilize their base.

Top of the Heap

LT: The governor’s race and the battle for U.S. Senate have sucked nearly all the oxygen out of the room. But what about state Constitutional races? Which of those are you watching in the final days?

Blake: The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general have generated a their fair share of attention. 

In the race for the former, John Burkhalter has proven to be an adept campaigner and candidate for the Democrats; it’s difficult to imagine anyone else in this political climate capable of crafting as persuasive of a political narrative in that race. But he’s up against a formidable opponent in Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Griffin. If Burkhlater loses a close race, his biography and his proven political prowess may put him in the interesting position of being one of a select few capable of rebuilding the Democratic Party to compete in the post-Obama era. 

As for the attorney general’s race, the Democratic nominee, state Rep. Nate Steel of Nashville, is young, dynamic and sensible — a recipe for success in just about any year in Arkansas except this one. 

His opponent, Republican Leslie Rutledge, has invited criticism over her voter registration credentials, her workplace professionalism and her competence, but the Democrats have had difficulty capitalizing on any of it. Unlike the lieutenant governor’s race, Obama has been a factor, which bodes well for Rutledge in a year where Republicans are running effective, single issue, no idea campaigns against the president. 

Still, I’ll submit that something out of character (with the rest of the results) will happen on election day, and it could be that the Democrat surprises in one of these two races.

Robert: There are a few down ballot Constitutional races that have my attention.  

Foremost is the race for attorney general. I stated in a column back in May that Steel may be the Democratic party’s best statewide candidate on the ballot this year, and based on what I’ve seen throughout the campaign, I think that’s still the case. 

While most of the polling in that race has shown Rutledge to be ahead, the race appears to have narrowed over the last few weeks amid negative press — primarily driven by Democratic opposition research efforts — for Rutledge, though the political environment still tends to favor her.  

If in fact the professed turnout boost claimed by the Democrats does come to fruition, this might be a race where it could have a noticeable effect.  

I’m also interested in the race for Arkansas treasurer between Republican Dennis Milligan and Democrat Karen Sealy Garcia.  

Milligan won what turned out to be a divisive Republican primary race over state Rep. Duncan Baird that resulted in some hard feelings among a number of political insiders and GOP supporters. I’m interested to see how the divisive primary hurts Milligan when it comes to securing the base, or whether it has any noticeable impact at all.  

Finally, we see it reported this week that John Burkhalter has loaned his lieutenant governor campaign more than $2 million — an astounding amount for any statewide office in Arkansas, and even more so for the LG spot.  

Presumably, somewhere along the way Burkhalter was convinced that he had a real shot to win this one, or he wouldn’t have pumped such a sizable amount of his own money in the race — though I haven’t seen anything that demonstrates that it was a wise investment.

Stumping with the Stars

LT: Helping promote all these candidates are big-time party surrogates. Bill Clinton has made swings through Arkansas (and might make yet another before Tuesday), and earlier this week we’ve seen Mike Huckabee. Rob Portman and Chris Christie are also making stops. 

What’s this cavalcade of stars likely to do for either party? And what do independents or undecideds make of all this?

Robert: No one can argue with the fact that President Bill Clinton can still draw a crowd. By all accounts his celebrity status among Democratic voters is still off the charts. Roughly a decade and a half after leaving office, Clinton still reliably answers the call for Democratic candidates in need of campaign trail magic — but he’s not a silver bullet. In 2010, Clinton came to Arkansas to shore up the Democratic base for then-U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln in her primary race against then-Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Clinton’s intervention in that race was perceived to have helped Lincoln edge out Halter in the runoff. But his support was far less impactful in persuading Republican and independent voters to pick Lincoln over then-U.S. Rep. John Boozman (R) in the general election.  

Surrogates have a role. More often than not, that role is to energize base voters to turn out on election day. In some campaigns the right ones can make a difference in swaying independent and undecided voters, but that’s not traditionally where their value lies. I think both parties are wise to bring their heavy hitters to the state to help with GOTV efforts — with Republicans smartly making northeast Arkansas, where they have had increasing success in 2010 and 2012, a priority.

Blake: For the Democrats, it was clear many weeks ago that they needed someone to come in and energize the base. Arguably, there’s no one better to do that than Bill Clinton. 

At the same time, Clinton — as he demonstrated at the 2012 Democratic National Convention — is adept at framing an argument in a way that resonates with various constituencies within the party. In my view, he’s been very effective at doing that. 

For example, Clinton made this particularly valid point recently in the U.S. Senate race: Why should voters give someone a six-year job for a two-year, anti-Obama protest? In the closing days, it is a question undecided voters should be asking of Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton. We know he’ll vote against the president for two years, but what will he do for the remaining four years? His campaign provides voters with little insight. 

On the Republican side, because many GOP candidates are sitting on leads, I have to think this is simply about finding more ways to attract free media and inspire entrenched voters to vote. After all, it’s difficult to conceive any Arkansas voter making up his or her mind based on what Rob Portman or Chris Christie says. 

But Mike Huckabee’s a known political personality and an effective communicator who remains popular among Republicans. In targeted races, like the competitive races for CD-2 and CD-4, Huckabee is probably an asset beyond just helping the all-important get-out-the-vote effort. 

Under the Dome

LT: We’ve talked about the big statewide races, but let’s spend some time on the Arkansas Legislature, which could be ripe for more Republican gains. What are your forecasts for the balance of power in the Legislature, and what key races will be particularly telling? Also: what does this balance of power portend for the private option and tax cuts?

Robert: With only three contested races in the Arkansas Senate, we know that chamber will remain solidly in Republican hands. The real action is in the Arkansas House, where there’s a 51-48-1 allocation among the GOP, Democratic and Green parties, respectively. Certainly — with this close of a margin — control of the House is very much in play.   

Both parties are targeting a handful of incumbent legislators in attempts to pick up seats in areas that they feel identify closer with their party’s values, and there are a number of open seats up for grabs. It goes without saying that all politics — particularly in legislative races — is local, and campaign fundamentals still apply. But the results at the top of the ticket — races for U.S. Senate, Congress and governor — will undoubtedly have an impact down the ballot in legislative races, both in terms of turnout and voter ideology.  

As mentioned earlier, Republicans have focused intently on northeast Arkansas this year, believing that region to be fertile ground for GOP gains based on recent success there.  

Key races to watch in northeast Arkansas include: 

  • District 52 – Radius Baker (D) vs. Dwight Tosh (R)
  • District 53 – Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Representative Homer Lenderman (D)
  • District 63 – James Starch (R) vs. Lackey Moody (D)

Democrats are targeting seats in south Arkansas like District 18 (Representative Richard Womack vs. Damon Daniels) and several in northwest Arkansas including: 

  • District 84 – Representative Charlie Collins (R) vs. JP Candy Clark (D)
  • District 93 – Leah Williams (D) vs. Representative Jim Dotson (R)
  • District 94 – Grimsley Graham (D) vs. Rebecca Petty (R)

As for the private option and tax cuts, those issues will be determined not only by the General Assembly, but also by the next governor. Republicans in both chambers are expected to continue to make tax cuts a priority. Should Republicans retain control of the House, the likelihood of some level of tax cuts being passed into law becomes a near certainty. 

And while the private option has been a divisive issue within the GOP caucus, it can’t be ignored that the initial cost savings that the program provides to the state is one way of coming up with the state revenues that are ultimately needed for cutting taxes (though not the only way).  

From a policy standpoint, I would expect that the private option gets a thorough review, and that the General Assembly could likely consider some additional reforms or changes to the program focused on its long term sustainability.

Blake: The Republicans will retain control of the state Senate to be sure. But there will be interest on the part of Democrats in just how well a dynamic unknown named Tyler Pearson does against the highly publicized Republican incumbent state Sen. Jason Rapert. 

In the Batesville area, Democratic state Sen. James McLean is running against former state Rep. Linda Collins-Smith, once a Democrat and now a Republican. And Democratic incumbent Robert Thompson, at times rumored to be a candidate for statewide office, faces Republican Blake Johnson, the same opponent he narrowly defeated in 2012, 51-49. If McLean and Thompson, both popular moderates, were to lose, it would be a sign of a very big night for Republicans. 

In the House, the Democrats need to hold on to seats of departing incumbents in competitive districts: 

  • District 19 – Nate Steel
  • District 35 – John Edwards
  • District 41 – Jim Nickels
  • District 63 – James McLean

They need to do this while protecting potentially vulnerable incumbents in 

  • District 53 – Homer Lenderman
  • District 61 – Scott Balz
  • District 73 – John Catlett

The Democrats won the latter two of those seats by four and three points respectively in 2012. 

Assuming they’re able to do so, if the Democrats hope to pick up two seats necessary to retake the majority, then these are three races to watch:

  • District 18 – Damon Daniels (D) vs. Richard Womack (R)
  • District 32 – John Adams (D) vs. Jim Sorvillo (R)
  • District 93 – Leah Williams (D) vs. Jim Dotson (R)

Like Robert said, it’s hard to say what all this means for tax cuts and the private option until we know who’s elected governor and what his legislative priorities will be. That said, both issues will have their share of complexity no matter the make-up of the General Assembly, and that means that a lot of savvy will be required of the governor and his staff.

The Inevitable Question About 2016

LT: We’ve focused a lot — rightly so — on Arkansas’ races. What are you watching nationally? Obviously, control of the U.S. Senate is the main thing. But are there other storylines we should be watching nationally on election night? And — I can’t believe I’m about to ask this — how does all this set us up for 2016?

Blake: It’s difficult not to be focused on the overall makeup of the U.S. Senate considering the ramifications of the Pryor-Cotton race in Arkansas. So on election day I’ll be watching Senate races in Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. 

There is a still a path, albeit a narrow one, for Democrats to maintain control of the Senate, which will mean something very different for the final two years of the Obama administration than if the Republicans seize control. 

If the Republicans do win the Senate, the big question is whether the Republicans will be willing to compromise on anything the administration wants to do. Based on the rhetoric of the midterm campaigns, the answer to that is “no,” in which case the Republicans set themselves up for another difficult national climate in 2016 when Obama won’t be on the ballot. It will be hard for Republicans, after having had control of both houses for a term, to blame the White House for the dysfunction. 

That, and Republicans have fared very well in midterms and rather poorly in national elections lately. That’s because they have a disadvantage on message and tactics, so one of the narratives that will emerge after this election — assuming it’s as good of one for the GOP as the polls suggest — is whether the Republicans can finally put together a national playbook that works. In that regard, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush are two interesting Republicans figures to watch. 

But if the Democrats hold the Senate, that will be the story of the cycle — and it a devastating blow to the GOP brand. 

I think there’s also something to the narrative that 2014 could be the year the Democrats were finally wiped out in the South. Right now, the Democrats are very competitive in North Carolina, a southern state trending blue. Louisiana and Georgia appear to be headed towards run-offs, and both Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former Georgia U.S. Sen. Sam Nunn, and U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu will be more difficult to beat in that environment.

Robert: At the national level, the big story is which party will control the U.S. Senate. Republicans need to achieve a net increase of six seats to take control of the upper chamber.  

The three most certain pickups are Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota.

Republicans also have prime pickup opportunities in Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and of course – Arkansas, but have to play solid defense in Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky.  

Another interesting storyline is the gubernatorial races taking place across the country. Democrats hold 21 seats, and Republicans hold 29. There are a number of toss up races for governor — a few of which include incumbents in purple states like Wisconsin, Florida, Colorado and Michigan.  

While members of the House and Senate are prone to get the headlines when it comes to 2016 speculation, in many cases governors bring a lot more the table when it comes to executive experience, a track record of getting things done and working across party lines. Depending on the outcome of this year’s elections, there could be some rising stars from the ranks of the nation’s GOP governors that start to break into the 2016 discussion, like Gov. Scott Walker (WI), Gov. Brian Sandoval (NV) and Gov. John Kasich (OH), as well as former governors like Jeb Bush (FL).

Three Things to Watch

LT: Well, like this current midterm election cycle, we’ve gone on far too long. But before we go, what your three big things to watch on election day?

Blake: 

1. How effective were the Democrats at mobilizing voters versus the Republicans?

2. How far down the ballot does the GOP’s one-dimensional, anti-Obama message extend?

3. Who is the Democrat that defies the Republican trend? (Hint: Hays, Burkhalter or Steel.)

Robert: 

1. Democrats have been promising that increased turnout will help them overcome the ballot gaps that most polls have shown. On election day we’ll find out if the Democratic Party’s turnout advantage claims were legitimate or if they were just blowing smoke.

2. What happens with Issue 3, the ethics reform amendment? This legislatively referred amendment imposes a number of new requirements and restrictions on corporate political contributions and lobbying expenditures, but also lengthens the terms legislators may serve. The language on the ballot is clear about the former, but not about the latter. Do voters understand what this proposal does? If it passes, many will argue that they didn’t.

3. Do Arkansas voters continue their independent streak of ticket splitting in Constitutional races, or does the spending onslaught in the governor and U.S. Senate races result in an increase in straight ticket balloting in the statewide races?

(Robert Coon is a partner at Impact Management Group, a public relations, public opinion and public affairs firm in Little Rock and Baton Rouge, Louisiana. You can follow him on Twitter at RobertWCoon. His opinion column appears every other Wednesday in the weekly Government & Politics e-newsletter. You can subscribe for free here.)

(Blake Rutherford is vice president of The McLarty Companies and previously was chief of staff to the Arkansas attorney general. You can follow him on Twitter at BlakeRutherford. His opinion column appears every other Wednesday in the weekly Government & Politics e-newsletter. You can subscribe for free here.)

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