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Tom Cotton, Asa Hutchinson Lead Big in Arkansas Poll

4 min read

Republican candidates for U.S. Senate and governor led their Democratic opponents by double digits in a poll released Thursday by the University of Arkansas.

The Arkansas Poll, in its 16th year, was conducted by Issues & Answers Network between Oct. 21-27, with 747 live telephone interviews of Arkansas voters. The poll’s margin of error is 3.6 percent. 

The poll found Tom Cotton, the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate, led Mark Pryor, the Democrat incumbent, 49 percent to 36 percent. Among men, Cotton led 57 percent to 36 percent, while women were even at 42 percent for each candidate.

“It is no accident that the Democrats seem to have made October the month of the woman,” Janine Parry, the poll director, said in a news release. “Not only are women as likely to favor Pryor as they are Cotton, but their votes are still up for grabs. While seven percent of men answered ‘don’t know’ or refused to answer, 13 percent of women were in one of those categories.”

In the race for Arkansas governor, Republican candidate Asa Hutchinson led Democratic candidate Mike Ross, 50 percent to 39 percent.

In races for U.S. House of Representatives and the Arkansas Legislature, respondents were asked whether they would vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate. Among very likely voters, Republican candidates led Democrats 47 percent to 33 percent in U.S. House races, and 45 percent to 36 percent in state legislative races.

Respondents Support Minimum Wage Hike

The Arkansas Poll also asked respondents about their support on three of five ballot measures. The results were:

  • Issue 3, which regulates lobbying activities and extends term limits for legislators, was opposed 59 percent to 27 percent.
  • Issue 4, which allows sale of alcohol in all Arkansas counties, is opposed 51 percent to 41 percent.
  • Issue 5, which increases the minimum wage, is supported 69 percent to 24 percent.

Arkansans Feeling Less Optimistic About State

The percentage of respondents that think the state is moving in the right direction was at an historical low for the Arkansas Poll this year.

Respondents were asked, “Overall, do you feel that Arkansas is generally headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?”

Twenty-five percent of all respondents, and 27 percent of likely voters, chose “wrong direction.” It’s largest negative response since 2003. At the same time, 57 percent of all voters, and 60 percent of very likely voters, answered “right direction.”

In terms of financial status, 22 percent, up from 14 percent, reported being better off financially than last year, while 24 percent, down from 26 percent, reported being worse off. Fifty-eight percent of respondents responded “about the same,” up from 50 percent in 2013.

“There’s often a disconnect between micro- and macro-level perception,” Parry said in the release. “I suspect that gap this year was magnified by the deluge of negative political advertising.”

Respondents were also asked about current issues.

  • Fifty-five percent of respondents gave an unfavorable opinion of the Affordable Care Act, while 27 percent gave a favorable opinion.
  • On gun control, 32 percent favored stricter laws, 19 percent favored less strict laws, and 43 percent answered no change. Answers changed little from last year, when 31 percent favored stricter laws, 15 percent favored less strict, and 47 percent answered no change.
  • On the abortion front, 40 percent of respondents, down from 44 percent last year, thought it should be more difficult to obtain, 11 percent, same as 2013, thought abortions should be easier to obtain, and 37 percent answered no change, up from 34 percent last year.
  • On same-sex relationships, 21 percent favored legal marriage, 21 percent favored civil unions or domestic partnerships, and 48 percent preferred no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship. All answers were in the margin of error compared to last year.
  • Respondents in favor of allowing undocumented immigrants remain in the U.S. to work for a limited time was at eight percent, compared to nine percent last year. Forty-nine percent, down from 59 percent in 2013, said they favored allowing undocumented immigrants to become U.S. citizens, and 29 percent, up from 21 percent last year, supported the deportation of all undocumented immigrants.

The Role of the Media

Thirteen percent of respondents believed journalists have high or very high standards, while 37 percent rated journalistic honesty and ethical standards as average, and 41 percent responded with low or very low.

“The results of the poll should be of concern to all in the journalism profession — practitioners and educators alike,” Raymond McCaffery, interim director of the Center for Ethics in Journalism in the Walter J. Lemke Department of Journalism at the University of Arkansas, said in the release. “Not only are the approval ratings of journalists and their ethical standards continuing to slip, but this poll reveals that the unfavorable ratings of journalists are also rising.”

The poll also found that 55 percent of very likely voters watched television news every night, and 41 percent read a newspaper every day.

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