Arkansas Business

This story is from the archives of ArkansasSports360.com.

Thank the stars above the rolling Ozarks! Football is finally here.

The most important lesson I’ve learned in the offseason is that trying to predict how the season will play out is impossible. Fans get frustrated with media members and coaches who are coy about the prospects for the season, but the truth of the matter is that any definitive predictions worth making are made with great trepidation.

Here’s what we DO know: The team ranked No. 1 at the beginning of the season almost never ends the season that way. Only 10 times since 1950 has the team ranked No. 1 to begin the season ended it that way. That’s a success rate of 16.6 percent. So, Oklahoma will probably not win the national title.

Since the SEC expanded to 12 teams, the media has only accurately predicted the eventual champion of the conference four times. Never have they accurately predicted Alabama to win it. So, Alabama will probably not win the SEC.

Arkansas has 11 seasons with 10 or more wins in its history. Only twice have the Razorbacks put together back to back double-digit wins ('64, '65; '88, '89). So, Arkansas will probably ...

WAIT ...

Before we go down the road of dampening expectations and crushing hopes and dreams, let's consider what Arkansas needs to do to buck the trend of predictions. (Because most people nationally aren’t expecting them to win 10 this season, right?)

Arkansas is different as a program. Arkansas has changed. Bobby Petrino is arguably the best coach Arkansas has ever had, and the talent on the depth chart shows.

Arkansas possesses the best wide-receiving corps in the nation, and even after the loss of Knile Davis the Razorbacks can claim some of the most talented running backs in the conference. The loss of Davis is substantial, but doesn’t seem to have many people scared. Why? Because people respect Petrino.

Arkansas’ defense is significantly better than it has been in recent years. In both 2006 and 2001 Arkansas had statistically impressive defenses, and the similarity between the defense this year and those is experience. The difference is depth. But Jake Bequette, Tenarius Wright and Jerry Franklin can’t be the only names anyone notices on the defense if the Razorbacks want to change how history perceives them.

If Arkansas has key newcomers step up, this team could shock the nation in unpredictable fashion; with defense. Lineman Robert Thomas, who some believe is the best player on the team, period, needs to live up to that hype. Linebacker Alonzo Highsmith needs to continue to surprise people, as he has all preseason. Cornerback Tevin Mitchel needs to play well enough that he’s not just providing an extra body, but making game-changing plays.

We write a lot about offense because Petrino is known for his play-calling prowess. But, I’ll leave you with an old cliche, and one prediction that is more often right than wrong in college football.

Defense wins championships. And if Arkansas gets one this season — SEC or BCS (what's the difference?) — it will be with defense.

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TJ Carpenter is host of The TJ Carpenter Show on The Hog Sports Radio Network from 1 to 4 (listen live at www.hogsportsradio.com). TJ is an unfortunate fan of the Redskins who are owned by Dan Snyder, who he now believes is a secret agent sent to destroy the franchise by Jerry Jones (he can afford it; it’s not that far fetched.) Contact him through the following with your thoughts and comments:
•tj@hogsportsradio.com 
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