Arkansas Business

This story is from the archives of ArkansasSports360.com.

Last week’s picks proved to be so spectacular I only regretted that I have but one fantasy bank account to bet on college football games. Saturday Roulette notched a 7-0-1 record, which means we won enough that we can celebrate through the Razorbacks’ final tune-up game and recover in time for the beginning of the season next week.

One of the fun things about fantasy betting is that you can make even the early non-conference games exciting. I have to admit, I’m ready to watch the Hogs play a big game. I have to believe the team is ready to play one, too. Which leads us to…

Troy (+23) @ Arkansas: When the line opened at 26.5, I was all set to pick Troy with the points. I’ve always expected the Hogs to win relatively easily but might come out sluggish, similar to the Louisiana-Monroe game last season. With Alabama on deck, and Jake Bequette, Jarius Wright, and possibly Greg Childs sitting out, this may be as conservative a game as Bobby Petrino has ever coached. Dennis Johnson is expected to return but who knows how effective he’ll be, or how much the coaches will allow him to do. It feels like a traditional vanilla preseason game. But now that the line has dropped to 23, Arkansas will only have to score 38 points to cover if they can hold the Trojans to 14 points or less, and I think they’ll do that. Go with the Hogs and prepare for next week.

Tennessee (+9.5) @ Florida (o/u 50.5): This Volunteers team reminds me of the 2009 Arkansas team. They have some really talented, but young players, especially on offense. The defense is going to give up some points, but hopefully for Tennessee, not too many. The Vols went 0-for-Urban Meyer, but the Bray/Hunter/Rogers trio has given Rocky Top the confidence that they can defeat the Gators for the first time since 2004. However, Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps could completely shred the Vol defense. The Gators have looked strong in their two tune-up games, but 9.5 points feels like too many to give up. I’m picking the Vols. And if the Vols cover, the over will also hit. If the Gators pull it out, the under will win. If you are the type of dandy who enjoys parlays, this should be a good game for it.

Oklahoma @ Florida State (o/u 55): My gut says Oklahoma will win, but I’m not confident. There are several reasons to pick Florida State; for instance, I don’t like teams coming off a second-week bye. There’s the injury to OU senior linebacker and leading tackler Travis Lewis. I could point out the Sooners’ well-documented Marilyn Monroe-in-Norman/Norma Jean-on-the-road persona. Don’t forget the revenge factor after the Sooners crimson and creamed the Seminoles by 30 points last year. I’m just not sold on either team, even though my friend Oklahoma Chuck, who is always willing to bet anyone’s mortgage on the Sooners, tried to convince me OU would claim a double-digit victory. And they very well could. Both of these teams have very strong offenses, but there hasn’t been enough evidence to figure out how good the defenses will be. Take the over and cheer for as much scoring as possible. It could get crazy.

Auburn (+3) @ Clemson: Les Miles is always the first person to get described as lucky in SEC discussions, but what about Auburn? In eight of their 17 consecutive wins, they have either trailed or been tied in the fourth quarter. They’ve taken advantage of failed trick plays and even a false snap penalty in overtime (and yes, I know, occasionally some good fortune from the replay booth). The trees at Toomer’s Corner have been poisoned and the famous War Eagle itself crashed into a window last week, yet Auburn continues to win.

Auburn will lose to someone this season, but it won’t be Clemson. It deserves to be a SEC team. And on that day, the conference will rejoice. Also, did you see Clemson “defeat” Wofford by only eight points last week? I’m going with Auburn. Auburn’s offense is good enough that it’s hard to pick against them when Vegas is giving them points.

Ole Miss (-1.5) @ Vanderbilt: I don’t really like the line in this game, but it is technically an SEC match-up and it does provide the always-enjoyable experience of discussing the astonishing fact that Houston Nutt is 2-3 in his career against Vanderbilt. Even more staggering? Both of those wins came in Nashville. In his career, Houston Nutt has played three home games against Vanderbilt and lost all three. Now exhale.

This game is in Nashville, so the home-losing streak isn’t on the line, but new coach James Franklin has Vanderbilt rolling. The Commodores are off to a 2-0 start and the program is quietly building confidence. Ole Miss is 1-1 after valiantly finishing off Southern Illinois to recover from choking against BYU. Ole Miss has more talent than Vandy, but this is Houston Nutt vs. Vanderbilt, and hey, we have a decent cushion after winning so many games last week. Pick Vandy. You know you want to cheer for the Commodores anyway.

Need more? Here are some other lines I like:

Iowa (-3) over Pittsburgh, Penn State (-7.5) over Temple, Oklahoma State (-13) over Tulsa.

How did everyone do last week? Think you can do better than me this week? Put your picks in a comment below. As always, remember that on-field wins and losses can be vacated, but your bets will live forever.

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Doc Harper is a contributor to ArkansasSports360.com and a semi-professional handicapper. And by semi-professional we mean complete amateur. If you have any thoughts, questions, tips, a game you want to have picked, etc, please comment below. You can also follow his weekly fits of despair and/or triumph on Twitter @doc_harper.