Arkansas Business

This story is from the archives of ArkansasSports360.com.

If the first week of Saturday Roulette was the type that would make you think about quitting your job and betting on games for a living, the second week was the kind that makes The Wife tell you, “Clock in at work early on Monday.”

Saturday Roulette humbly went 3-5 last week, bringing the overall mark to a still-favorable 10-5-1. It was the type of Saturday that felt cursed. Auburn blew a 21-7 lead. Both Oklahoma and Florida State scored on their first drives and hitting the over appeared to be a formality until the defenses quickly went into assassination mode and the game became a defensive struggle.

Those moments, however, pale in comparison to last week’s largest crime against fantasy betters. In the third quarter of its game against Florida, Tennessee scored a touchdown to cut the lead to 30-13. An extra point would have cut the Vols’ deficit to 16 points, two touchdowns behind. But Derek Dooley (who showed in last year’s epic LSU debacle he has a problem with basic counting when under pressure) decided he’d attempt a two-point conversion to cut the lead to 15 and still be two touchdowns behind. The pass attempt was knocked down before even making it to the goal line and Tennessee remained three scores from leading the game.

That is a big deal to people who bet on the game because the final score was 33-23. The spread was 9.5. The extra point would’ve made the score 33-24 and those, like Saturday Roulette, who picked the Vols would have won. For making the type of pointlessly absurd decision that might lead some to think the fix was in, Saturday Roulette was inspired to create the Rigged Slots Award, and the inaugural winner is Derek Dooley. Here’s to you, Coach Dooley.

Now on to this week’s action.

Arkansas (+12) @ Alabama: I was surprised when the line was announced this high. I thought after last week’s games that if the line was above 7, I would pick the Hogs without worrying about it and I’m sticking to that. Yes, the Razorbacks were lethargic last week, but it was somewhat expected, and Alabama has shown vulnerabilities, at least on offense. The Tide committed five turnovers in their first game and didn’t overwhelm Penn State offensively — scoring only 27 points. I expect the Razorbacks to be competitive and if they can make things difficult for Alabama by not turning the ball over (the cause of last year’s disappointment) and giving them good field position, they have a great shot at pulling off the victory. Or at least covering the spread. The Razorbacks will cover, and I think that’s an easier bet than picking the game’s actual winner.

Oklahoma State (+4.5) @ Texas A&M: You have to respect Oklahoma State’s performance last week. After waiting out a rain delay until 12:16 a.m., the Cowboys still poured in 59 points until the game finally ended at 3:35 a.m. and heroically covered the spread. This is likely the best A&M team in several years, but they’ll soon find that the conference farewell tour can be brutal. Coaches and fans will be paranoid toward officiating and other Big 12 teams will be lining up to get one last good beat down in before the Aggies bolt. In theory, this game could go either way, but for reasons of good karma, I’m picking Oklahoma State. Enjoy the bon voyage, Aggies.

LSU @ West Virginia (o/u 49.5): We’re all waiting for the moment this season when Les Miles reaches into his grab bag of football tricks beyond general comprehension. Those tend to occur in tight, low-scoring games like I expect this game to be. The crowd in Morgantown will be roaring. GameDay will be there and after this week’s conference realignment rendezvous, I’m sure West Virginia would love to prove they can hang with the SEC. However, LSU has already won a GameDay game against Oregon and silenced the Starkville cowbells in a Thursday night game. It’s still September and the Tigers are already battle-tested in that sort of atmosphere. I expect the LSU defense to lock down the Mountaineers, get the crowd out of the game and escape Morgantown with a narrow victory – possibly featuring a Les moment. I’m going with the under. 

Florida (-19.5) @ Kentucky: Kentucky’s football team is so bad that this game actually opened at 11 and enough money was quickly bet on Florida that the line has shot all the way up to 19.5 and it could still go higher. The Wildcats haven’t figured out how to score since Randall Cobb left Lexington last year. Pick Florida.

Georgia (-9) @ Ole Miss: Imagine the last seven Houston Nutt teams at Arkansas without Darren McFadden, Matt Jones, Felix Jones, Peyton Hillis and so on. That’s the type of team Ole Miss has. Nutt has a reputation for winning games he shouldn’t, but he also normally does that with at least one supremely talented player. He doesn’t have one right now. The Rebels are a bad team and Georgia has shown signs of life over the last couple of weeks. I like the Bulldogs big.

Need more? Here’s some other lines I like:

Tulsa (+28) over Boise St., Michigan (-10.5) over San Diego St., Oregon (-15) over Arizona.