Arkansas Business

This story is from the archives of ArkansasSports360.com.

Usually the Monday after a win over a Top 10 team the Razorback faithful have a lot of reasons to rejoice, especially if Arkansas is also a Top 10 team.

Today Razorback fans are angry, and justifiably so. Arkansas dropped from its No. 7 ranking in the BCS to No. 8 after a win over then-No. 9 South Carolina.

The BCS is a fickle beast. It knows not whether margin of victory, wins, strength of schedule or politics should matter most. Arkansas’ single loss was to Alabama on the road. Some of the teams ahead of them also have one loss.

Fans have questions and they want answers.

It’s hard to argue Oregon who lost to LSU at the beginning of the season should be ranked below Arkansas. But Oregon has only played two teams ranked in the Top 30 to the tune of .500. The Ducks' lone win was against now 6-3 Arizona State. Arkansas is 3-1 against the Top 30, with wins over Texas A&M, Auburn and South Carolina. But the argument for Oregon is that its blowout loss to LSU now looks more impressive than Arkansas’ blowout loss to Alabama because LSU beat Alabama in overtime by a field goal. Does one quality loss trump another because of a narrow overtime win?

That’s question No. 1.

Oklahoma lost to an unranked and less-than-impressive Texas Tech at home, yet it is still ranked above Arkansas. Oklahoma was ranked No. 1 in the preseason and according to many media members around the country “passes the eye test.” The reasoning here is that the current ranking is more about the evolution of a team throughout the season. Because Arkansas struggled with Ole Miss and Vanderbilt on the road but beat South Carolina at home, its “evolution” isn’t as far along as Oklahoma’s, which lost to the Red Raiders at home but has beaten now floundering Florida State on the road, 6-2 Texas at a neutral site and surprising Kansas State on the road. Oklahoma’s loss to Texas Tech is less damaging than Arkansas’ two rough wins on the road. Does one bad loss at home trump two bad wins on the road?

Conventional wisdom would say no, but that’s question No. 2.

The third question has to do with the SEC, popular opinion and perception versus reality. If your head wasn’t hurting by this point, it will soon.

WARNING: Arkansas’ BCS scenarios should not be considered while consuming medication or alcohol. If you have a conversation about an LSU-Alabama rematch for the national title lasting more than four hours please consult a physician.

The SEC is “down” this year. While this statement is true, the extent to which it is true is subject to debate. South Carolina was ranked No. 9 in the BCS because of its record, but was largely viewed as a team struggling. The Gamecocks were picked to win the East by a large consensus before the season, but injuries and dismissals soured many on their chances of attaining that goal. Still, I repeat, they were ranked ninth in the BCS because of their record. Why were they ranked so high if people already thought of them as a floundering team? (For that matter, why was Kansas State ranked so high if people knew they were fools gold? Why don’t these teams get the Houston/Boise State treatment if they are products of a weak schedule? That’s another argument.)

The answer lies in perception. If the SEC is down, why do Alabama and LSU get credit for beating SEC teams, but Arkansas gets punished for it? Because popularity and perception are stronger than reality. For that matter, even in the event of a three-way tie at the end of the season (one dependent on Arkansas beating LSU, which is not far-fetched; that game is usually decided by three points or less and Arkansas has won three out of the last four), Arkansas will still be a team subject to its national image.

The Razorbacks' national image is one of being a scrappy team fighting for their one moment in the spotlight, but not a long-term contender and therefore a less quality team.

OU, LSU, Alabama and Oregon are all perceived as long-term contenders. South Carolina, the team Arkansas beat, and the Razorbacks themselves are not.

Arkansas could be left out of the BCS entirely even if its beats LSU because voters may not view the loss as enough to drop LSU below Arkansas. But if they do, the likelihood that Arkansas jumps Alabama and Arkansas and LSU are not dropped below Alabama is very low.

According to SEC rules, the tie-breaker for a tie in the division is who is ranked higher in the BCS, and if the team that is ranked higher than the second highest ranked team lost to that team, they must be ranked at least five spots higher to advance to the SEC Championship Game. In simple terms, Alabama must be the third-ranked team in the BCS among SEC teams for Arkansas to advance to the SEC championship game and play for a birth in the national title game.

And even if that scenario plays out, Arkansas must also rely on Oklahoma losing another game and also beating Oklahoma State or Stanford beating Oregon but losing in the new PAC-12 Championship Game.

The BCS is a lot of things -- entertaining, controversial, the way things are, but isn’t just one of them. New SEC member Missouri knows that. Arkansas fans will likely know that as well when it is all said and done.

All Arkansas can do is work toward what they can control. Unfortunately, the BCS may have already decided that for them.
----

TJ Carpenter is host of The TJ Carpenter Show on The Hog Sports Radio Network from 1-4 p.m. (listen live at HogSportsRadio.com) He contributes to MrSEC.com and CollegeFootballNews.com. Find him on Facebook and @tjcarpentershow.