OMAHA, Neb. – A monthly economic survey index for nine Midwestern and Plains states dropped in September, suggesting slowing economic growth in the months ahead.
A survey report issued Wednesday says the overall Mid-America Business Conditions Index dropped nearly three percentage points to 54.3, from 57.2 the previous month.
Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the survey, says a drop in grain prices over the past year has led to a pullback in economic activity for the heavily agrarian region.
The survey results from supply managers are compiled into a collection of indexes ranging from zero to 100. Survey organizers say any score above 50 suggests economic growth, while a score below that suggests decline.
The survey covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.
The report put Arkansas’ overall index at a weak 47.0, up from August’s 45.6. Components of the index were:
- new orders at 47.9
- production or sales at 44.1
- delivery lead time at 55.1
- inventories at 36.9
- employment at 50.9
“Even with durable goods manufacturers continuing to expand in the state, nondurable goods producers and value added service firms detailed pullbacks for the state,” Goss said. “Surveys over the past several months point to much slower economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2014.”
Goss said that for the last year through August, government data show that average weekly wages in Arkansas have fallen by about 1 percent. The survey indicates wage growth will remain weak and potentially negative for the last quarter of 2014, Goss said.
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