Midwest Economy Improving But Businesses Less Optimistic

Midwest Economy Improving But Businesses Less Optimistic

OMAHA, Neb. — The economy continues improving in nine Midwest and Plains states but business leaders are less optimistic after the latest surge in coronavirus cases in the region, according to a new monthly survey released Monday.

The overall index for the region suggests strong growth even though it dipped to 64.1 in December from November's 69. Any score above 50 on the survey’s indexes suggests growth, while a score below 50 suggests recession. 

Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the survey, said the manufacturing sector has been growing steadily since restrictions related to the virus started to be relaxed in the spring, but current activity still remains below the level it was at before the pandemic began. 

Goss said the survey's confidence index suggests business leaders are worried about the economy after the recent growth in virus cases across the region. The confidence index dipped into negative territory at 45.8 in December from November's neutral score of 50.

Companies were still hiring last month, but the pace of job growth slowed. The employment index declined to 57.7 in December from November’s 63.1. Goss said the region still has 4.7% fewer jobs now than when the pandemic began — a decrease of about 655,000 jobs. 

The monthly survey covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

The overall index for Arkansas increased slightly in December to 62.3 from November’s 62.2.

Components of the index were: new orders at 64.9, production or sales at 60.9, delivery lead time at 76.6, inventories at 52.3, and employment at 56.7. Since the onset of COVID-19 in February, the Arkansas economy has lost a net of 41,000 nonfarm jobs, or 3.2%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The top performing industry for 2020 was construction.

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