Kathy Deck likes the Arkansas economy so much she named her presentation at the 22nd annual Business Forecast Luncheon.
“Cruising Altitude” was her choice after a strong 2015 put the state on solid footing. Deck, the director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas, said the state could still encounter “turbulence,” but key indicators ticked upward after several years of stagnant growth after the recession.
The state added 22,500 jobs in 2015, and Deck said models predict another 11,000 new jobs this year.
“Things were pretty good,” Deck told a crowd of business and government leaders at the Hammons Center in Rogers. “Across the state of Arkansas in 2015, things were pretty good. Gosh, oh golly gee, it seems we have a lot of things in place to continue to do things as well as we’ve been doing.”
Northwest Arkansas, Jonesboro and Little Rock were bright spots for the state, while Fort Smith was stagnant and Pine Bluff’s decline continued. Jonesboro’s growth was the best in the state, while Little Rock reached its pre-recession levels of employment.
“Little Rock had some good stuff happen this year,” Deck said. “We need good things to happen there.”
Fort Smith could see some improvement this year because it made investments in growth. Those investments just haven’t come to fruition yet.
“I truly do believe the secret to success for any region is the investments that it makes,” Deck said. “When you talk about investments in a local economy, you can’t talk about it enough.”
Jonesboro had the best job growth by percentage, but northwest Arkansas remains the state’s economic star. The region added 4,800 jobs in 2015, and Deck predicted another 5,000 jobs would be added in 2016.
“It continues to be nothing short of amazing,” Deck said. “The northwest Arkansas economy is very dynamic and it’s huge.”
Deck gave the state presentation at the luncheon, which was moderated by Bill Dillard III, the vice president of Dillard’s Inc. of Little Rock. Michael Drury of McVean Trading & Investments gave the global presentation and Kevin Kleisen, an economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, gave the national overview.
Drury said the global economy suffered a recession in 2015 that the U.S. avoided. He expects the international economies to recover this year because global investors will still see other markets as having fewer headwinds than the United States.
“The role of the United States is to push growth in the rest of the world,” Drury said. “Every place in the world is going to do better than the U.S. in 2016. I don’t think we’re going to do badly.”