Discovering Arkansas: Census Bureau Estimates Show Rising Population

Randy Zook, president and CEO of the Arkansas State Chamber of Commerce: “Arkansas is an attractive place that people are discovering and moving to.” (Steve Lewis)

More than half of Arkansas’ 75 counties have seen their populations grow since 2020, and the state’s population is growing at close to 2%, the U.S. Census Bureau said in its Population Estimate report May 16.

Two of the state’s cities, both located in the blooming northwest region, earned special recognition. Fayetteville surpassed 100,000 in population in 2023, one of four cities nationally to do so, and Centerton was the sixth-fastest growing city — of those with more than 20,000 people — since 2022, adding residents at a 11.2% clip.

While the usual suspects were the state’s population stars, the overall growth throughout the state was a good sign. The state population was estimated by the Census Bureau to be 3.07 million in July 2023, a 1.87% increase from the 2020 Census numbers.

The state grew from 2,916,029 in 2010 to 3,011,524 in 2020, a 3.28% increase.

“Arkansas is an attractive place that people are discovering and moving to,” said Randy Zook, the president and chief executive officer of the Arkansas State Chamber of Commerce. “Since the 2020 Census, the latest estimates show that over half the counties in Arkansas are positive. It is spreading itself out across the state.”

The true numbers could be even better, Zook said. In 2022, the Census Bureau listed Arkansas on its population undercount list, reporting that Arkansas’ actual population might be more than 5% higher than Census statistics.

Zook said that would mean an additional 150,000 people were living in Arkansas. That would also mean more federal money for programs that target Arkansans, money that is calculated based on population figures.

“The state is growing faster than the data indicates so far,” Zook said. “It means a lot of people are moving here, more than we are actually recording, which is good. No. 2, an enormous amount of money is distributed by the federal government to the states, through the cities and counties primarily, based on population. We are getting shortchanged by a substantial amount of money because we missed on our census process.”

No Surprises

Fayetteville is the state’s second-largest city behind Little Rock, but Bentonville has been the star of northwest Arkansas in recent years.

Bentonville’s 2023 estimated population of 59,471 is a 9.7% increase from 2020. Bentonville ranked as the 123rd fastest-growing city, again among those of 20,000 or more, in the U.S. from 2020 to 2023.

In growth rate, Conway saw an 8.5% increase to 69,580 to rank 150th nationally, and Fayetteville’s 7.8% increase to 101,680 ranked 165th.

Cities with 20,000 or more in population
*As of April 1, 2020 ,** As of July 1, 2022 (Source: U.S. Census Bureau)

Mervin Jebaraj said the Census Bureau’s report didn’t have a lot of surprises for those who have been following Arkansas. Jebaraj is the director of the Center for Business & Economic Research at the University of Arkansas’ Sam M. Walton’s College of Business.

Jebaraj said cities that have shown strong growth, such as Fayetteville, Conway, Searcy and Jonesboro, have a strong university presence. Bentonville is home to Walmart Inc. and its network of vendors, as well as vibrant cultural amenities such as Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art.

“There is a lot more economic activity in those cities,” Jebaraj said.

Searcy was overshadowed only by Centerton in the growth department. The central Arkansas city, home to Harding University, was the 95th fastest-growing city from 2022 to 2023, adding nearly 1,000 people for a 3.9% increase.

“This recognition is a testament to the hard work and dedication of our community members, businesses, and organizations,” Tara Cathey, the president of the Searcy Area Chamber of Commerce, said in a news release.

Spillover Cities

In northwest Arkansas, it’s not just the main four cities driving the growth. Smaller satellite cities, with Centerton the bell cow, have benefited from being close to, and cheaper than, the big brother cities.

Centerton, considered west Bentonville unofficially by many, saw its population spring from 21,540 in 2022 to 23,953 in 2023. Tontitown, a stone’s throw west of Springdale, saw its population go from 4,701 in 2020 to 7,364 in 2023, an increase of more than 56%.

Bella Vista, just north of Bentonville, and Pea Ridge, to the northeast, also saw robust growth.

Brandom Gengelbach, CEO of the Greater Bentonville Chamber of Commerce, said the one-for-all motto of northwest Arkansas is paying off. Gengelbach’s chamber includes Bentonville, Centerton, Pea Ridge and Bella Vista, but he is quick to point out that the entire region succeeds as a team.

“Bentonville is certainly on the list, but you can’t talk about Bentonville without talking about the growth of Fayetteville and Rogers and Springdale,” Gengelbach said. “There’s not a city in northwest Arkansas that can survive by itself. To compete against the other communities we are competing against, you have to take northwest Arkansas as a whole.

“It is really exciting to be in this community right now.”

In central Arkansas, Little Rock remains the state’s largest city with 203,842 people, a 0.6% increase from 2020. Neighboring Benton, just down Interstate 30, grew 2.6% from 2022 to 37,558, good enough for 180th best in the nation in growth rate.

In the River Valley, Fort Smith saw a slight decrease in population, but its neighboring city of Van Buren, population 24,138, saw 1.7% growth from 2022-23 and 3.88% growth from 2020-23.

“Much of the growth is happening in northwest Arkansas,” Jebaraj said. “Outside of that, you still see growth where we have seen in the past, in Jonesboro and a little bit in central Arkansas, mostly in the suburbs.”

Of course, there are areas in the state losing population, primarily in east and south Arkansas. The Arkansas Economic Development Institute reported this month that Pine Bluff lost the most population in the state from 2022 to 2023, seeing a decline of 446 residents. It was followed by Fort Smith, Helena-West Helena, El Dorado and Wynne.

Zook, while pushing for the state to make investments to improve its census accuracy, said the overall news for Arkansas’ population is good. “We are a very compelling place when people come here to visit and take a look at,” Zook said. “There are lots of places in the state that continue to lose population and are challenged. The state, on the whole, is growing at a faster rate, both economically and population wise.”