Now It Really Begins (Blake Rutherford On Politics)

Blake Rutherford

(Editor’s Note: This is an opinion column.)

The first Monday in September is Labor Day, an annual rite of celebration for the American worker. It also marks the unofficial beginning of the fall political season, a particularly important one this year in Arkansas, and a time when political pundits predict voters really will pay attention to what’s happening in the political arena.

But before we get to all of that, let’s be honest about something: the summer of 2014 was dismal.

Abroad, Russia continued its adventurist pursuits into eastern Ukraine; separate wars raged in Syria and along the Gaza strip; Libyan militia forces continued to battle for control of Tripoli; and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a vicious militant group, beheaded two American journalists.

What didn’t help matters was that last week, in the aftermath of the savagery that took the lives of James Foley and Steven Soltloff, President Barack Obama, when asked about America’s plan to combat ISIS in Syria, said, “We don’t have a strategy yet.” It was unnecessarily dramatic and ill-timed and accentuated a problem that has rippled across the political spectrum.

As David Remnick rightly observed in The New Yorker: “Obama’s halting cool at the lectern now reads too often as weakness, and when he protests against the charges of weakness he can seem just tired. As the Middle East disintegrates and a vengeful cynic in the Kremlin invades his neighbor, Obama has offered no full and clarifying foreign-policy vision.”

According to a new poll from Washington Post/ABC News released yesterday, a whopping 91 percent of Americans see ISIS as a serious threat to U.S. vital interests. That is a problem for the president because just 38 percent of Americans approve of the way he has handled of foreign affairs (a career low, by the way), and 52 percent now believe that he has been too cautious in dealing with ISIS.

Tonight, the president will deliver a national address about ISIS and outline, I hope, a strategy that convinces the public that he has the capacity to lead. Only 43 percent of the country views Obama as a strong leader. While foreign affairs may not greatly influence the dynamics of specific races in November, how voters feel about presidential leadership and the direction of the country, particularly as it pertains to their own safety and security, certainly will. So for the Democrats, this speech may be the most significant of the 2014 election. 

At home, we continue to face grim economic realities. On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor unveiled its August jobs report. Employers added 142,000 jobs. While it was the 54th straight month of private sector job growth, it was well below the 250,000 jobs projected. That same report also determined the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1 percent.

At least that is sort of good news, right? Not really.

It turns out that the improvement in the unemployment rate has a lot to do with Americans dropping out of the labor force entirely. In August, overall labor participation was at 62.8 percent, unchanged since April and holding at its lowest level since the 1970s. Customarily, retirement influences the change in labor force participation, but that does not seem to be the case here. Only 81 percent of workers age 25 to 54 are in the labor market, a shocking statistic, down 2.4 percent since 2007. The raw difference? Three million workers. Men are leaving the workforce at a rapid rate; participation is down 4.2 percent, from 93 percent to 88.8 percent, over seven years. Participation among women has stalled at 74 percent. In total, 9.6 million people in America are without work.

Concurrent with the jobs report, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve published the Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, a study conducted over a period three years involving more than six thousand families in an effort to gain an understanding of their financial circumstances. The results are a mixed bag, especially for those who were not already doing well.

Considering the Fed report broadly, the only sector to realize income growth over the past three years was the top 10 percent, or those with a household income of $397,000. For everyone else incomes declined during this period, including among seniors, families with a head-of-household under the age of 35, as well as the bottom 20 percent. As the data suggests it would, income disparity between the wealthiest and the poorest continued to rise. [1]

At this stage of the contest, the combination of uncertainty abroad and economic stagnation at home coupled with disapproval for the president should be poisonous for the Democrats. But as the Washington Post/ABC News poll shows, among registered voters nationally preference actually leans towards them, 46 to 44 percent. However, among those who say they are certain to vote, Republicans have a slight edge, 47 to 44 percent, and Republicans maintain a 12-point advantage among Independents.

The Democrats have an edge in enthusiasm. Seventy-one percent of Democrats are enthusiastic about supporting their candidate compared to only 63 percent of Republicans. [2]

And Republicans are still having difficulty relating to voters. When asked who is “more concerned with the needs of people like you” the Democrats have a 12-point advantage. And, despite the financial malaise of the country, when asked who is better at “understanding the economic problems people are having,” the Democrats have a 13-point advantage. [3]

Perhaps more than any other, the critical constituency in the 2014 election will be women. Two weeks ago Politico reported that two major GOP groups, Crossroads GPS and American Action Network, conducted a nationwide study, “Republicans and Women Voters: Huge Challenges, Real Opportunities,” that demonstrated how far behind the GOP is with women. Forty-nine percent view Republicans unfavorably. The Democrats hold a 39 percent advantage on the matter of who “looks out for the interests of women,” that study determined. Today, Democrats maintain a 7-point advantage nationally among women. [4]  

In Arkansas and throughout the course of this election, Republican fidelity to the notion that Obama is the Democrats’ enervation has never waned; the president’s approval rating hovers in the low 30s in the Natural State. Be that as it may – and considering the conditions at home and abroad – it’s worth noting that Pryor, Mike Ross and Pat Hays, the 2nd Congressional District candidate, are statistically deadlocked with their GOP opponents despite being enmeshed in races with substantial anti-Obama overtones. [5]

To be sure, the dismal summer did not bode well for the Democrats, but whether it is ultimately enough to push these Republicans and others over the line in November is yet to be seen. After all, an influential percentage of the electorate remains undecided while others that may have soft opinions on the candidates can still be influenced by what takes place over the next seven weeks.

With the passing of Labor Day the political races have, in earnest, only just begun. 

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[1] The economy continues to be the most important issue for voters by a wide margin, and 69 percent of Americans believe it’s in bad shape, according to the Washington Post/ABC News poll.

[2] This is particularly important when you consider the influence that voter mobilization efforts will likely have on the outcome.

[3] The remarkable about-face that leading Republican candidates in Arkansas took on the ballot initiative to raise the minimum wage amplifies the point. Furthermore, a CNN/ORC International poll found Mark Pryor leading Tom Cotton by 9 points among those make less than $50,000 per year.

[4] In that regard, the CNN/ORC International provides some insight into how women in Arkansas view the current electoral landscape. Pryor maintains an 8-point advantage among women overall, but interestingly when considered by race, he trails Cotton by 11 points among white women.

[5] For example: Cotton led Pryor 49 percent – 47 percent according to the CNN/ORC International poll (4.5 percent margin of error); French Hill led Pat Hays 44 percent – 43 percent according to a Talk Business/Hendrix College poll (4.5 percent margin of error); and Mike Ross led Asa Hutchinson 46 percent – 44 percent according to a Rasmussen Reports poll (4 percent margin of error).

(Blake Rutherford is vice president of The McLarty Companies and previously was chief of staff to the Arkansas attorney general. You can follow him on Twitter at BlakeRutherford. His opinion column appears every other Wednesday in the weekly Government & Politics e-newsletter. You can subscribe for free here.)