The Art of the Pivot (Hunter Field Editor’s Note)

A file photo of President Donald Trump (Shutterstock)

A college classmate of President Donald Trump appeared in this publication a few weeks ago with some thoughts on the impacts of a second Trump administration for businesses.

“Whatever you say about the politics of Donald Trump, his management style is highly volatile and therefore risky. It may give better outcomes; it may give worse, but it’s highly risky,” said Noël Perry, who runs the consulting firm Transport Futures of Cornwall, Pennsylvania, and attended the University of Pennsylvania in the late 1960s with Trump.

With the benefit of hindsight after last week, how prescient were those thoughts?

I started writing this column several times, but as is routine for this White House, everything changed. Then, it changed again.

Over the weekend of Feb. 1, the Trump administration announced the levy of a 25% import tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, except Canadian energy products, which drew a 10% tariff. Trump also said he would tack on an extra 10% tariff on Chinese imports. (He did this without congressional approval, but that’s a column for another day.)

By last Monday, the tariffs on our North American neighbors had been called off, with the White House touting commitments from both to support stronger control over the flow of people and drugs at the borders. The tariffs on China were still on at the time of this writing, but by the time this is published, who knows? That is the Trump way, and for many, that’s his allure.

For business, this will make planning more difficult for at least the next four years. It also means that businesses should be more prepared than ever to pivot.

Tyson provided a good example when CEO Donnie King told Yahoo Finance a week ago that the company didn’t expect significant impacts from the proposed tariffs and that it had accounted for potential tariffs in its forecasting, as well as more immigration crackdowns. If Mexico, for example, imposed retaliatory tariffs, King told the outlet that Tyson could redirect some Mexico-bound products elsewhere to avoid the negative consequences.

That of course won’t work for other companies that rely heavily on imports from the affected countries or whose market shares in countries that would retaliate are greater (sorry, Arkansas farmers).

On the flip side, things are looking up for American steelmakers, like all those in Mississippi County. If you’re the one buying it, well, that’s another story.

We regularly survey readers of Arkansas Business about the economy, their worries and their optimism. Most, it’s fair to say, were hopeful for an easing of regulations after the election.

They’re going to get that from a Trump White House and GOP-controlled Congress, but it’s going to come with volatility that at times follows the hourly whims of the man behind the Resolute Desk.

Businesses would be wise to ready themselves to pivot quickly, if they haven’t already, because the time will come.

Email Hunter Field, editor of Arkansas Business, at hfield@abpg.com