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Growing up in Arkansas, I was a fan of local TV news, and one of my favorite things was KARK-TV, Channel 4’s “Dialing for Dollars.”
You know how this works: During the noon newscast, an anchor — in my day, it was Beth Ward, Tom Bonner or Lisa Fischer — would reveal “the count and the amount.” The anchor would pull a phone number from a barrel and call a viewer. If the viewer knew the count and the amount — “six down, $100” — they’d win $100. If they didn’t, KARK would send them a consolation prize, a case of Coca-Cola.
KARK never called my house, but they did call my grandmother, who wasn’t home. She didn’t even get a case of Coke.
The count and the amount matter to the federal government too. That’s why, by constitutional mandate, it conducts a decennial census. The U.S. Census is a cornerstone initiative of the federal government, gathering key information that informs decisions throughout government and business — everything from redrawing congressional and state legislative districts and allocating federal money, to infrastructure planning and private investment.
It also sheds light on areas that are growing and losing population. It’s no surprise that the fastest-growing places in the state during the past 10 years are in northwest Arkansas. According to raw data released by the U.S. Census:
► Benton County had the state’s fastest growth, its population up by 28% since 2010 to 284,333.
► Washington County was second, up by about 21% to 245,871. Fayetteville, now the state’s second-largest city, surpassing Fort Smith, has been the catalyst.
► The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA grew by 24% to 546,725.
The reasons for growth are obvious. The region is home to the state’s biggest companies, which attract thousands of workers from all over the world, and the University of Arkansas.
Central Arkansas saw growth too, but not as much:
► Pulaski County remained the state’s largest, up 4% to 399,125 people.
► The Little Rock MSA, which includes Conway and North Little Rock, grew by nearly 7% to 748,031.
► Saline County grew by 15% to 123,416 people.
In northeast Arkansas, Craighead County grew by 15% to 111,231 people. Despite being home to a thriving steel industry (see Mississippi County: Magnet for Steel), Mississippi County declined by more than 12% to 40,685 people. Overall, Arkansas’ population grew by 3% to 3,011,524.
In the big book of U.S. Census data, 2020 will carry an asterisk. The COVID year upended many things, including our benchmark population count. The pandemic delayed in-person interviews and field operations and disrupted census call centers. Some think an attempt to include a citizenship question discouraged immigrants from participating.
These problems have led some local governments to be dubious about the results. Helena-West Helena Mayor Kevin Smith told state legislators on Aug. 12 that “between COVID, the politics coming out of Washington, D.C.,” and other factors, the 2020 data is “historically bad,” and perhaps the “worst data in the history of the Republic.”
Helena-West Helena is the Phillips County seat. Raw census data shows the county population tumbled by 5,189 — nearly 24% — from 2010 to 2020. Smith told legislators he’d like a recount.
It’s a similar story in western Arkansas. Mansfield Mayor Buddy Black and Waldron Mayor David Millard told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette last week that they too would like a recount, citing anecdotal evidence that doesn’t jibe with the raw data. Both cities lost population.
And in Booneville, City Clerk Gayleene West has questions of her own, noting that while the census says her city population dropped from 3,990 to 3,809, the Booneville School District has added students.
For local governments, the census puts the allocation of hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funding on the line. If your city or county “wins” the census, you retain or gain money for hospitals, fire departments, schools, roads and other public services, things that are the lifeblood of your community.
But if you “lose,” the result could be fewer federal dollars flowing in, making it more difficult to serve your population. There’s no consolation prize for that. Not even a case of Cokes.
All this underscores the importance of an accurate, nonpartisan census.
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