What Outside Spending in Ohio Could Mean for Arkansas (Heather Yates On Politics)

Ohio's 12 Congressional District and Arkansas' 2nd share some similarities. Could Arkansas see a similar rate of outside campaign spending this fall?

This past year was a very active special election cycle, and the recent special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District may yield some insights for Arkansas’ 2nd District.

The two districts share similarities. Both are centrally positioned, encompassing rural, agrarian and suburban constituencies. Donald Trump won both in 2016, and political experts ranked them as likely Republican districts in the midterms. And in each district, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) backs the Democratic challenger.

But Ohio holds particular importance to interpreting elections because it’s considered a bellwether state — a state where voters tend to consistently reflect national voting trends. While it’s difficult to forecast elections or offer any clairvoyance about Election Day turnout, there are some variables to watch ahead of November’s midterm elections, the most important being outside campaign spending.

What Ohio’s Special Election Reveals

The Ohio special election matched Trump-backed Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O’Connor, with Balderson the victor by less than a one-point margin. The Ohio 12th is a solid Republican district that has not elected a Democrat since 1980. But as seen in other special elections in solid Republican districts, Democratic challengers have proved more competitive than expected.

Democrats will likely be encouraged by this trend and interpret it as support for their “blue wave” thesis. While conventional theory posits the president’s party is politically vulnerable in the first midterm of the administration, there is also a practical variable to explain increased Democratic competitiveness: campaign money. Specifically, outside spending may be a key factor explaining increased Democratic competitiveness in some typically red districts.

In Ohio, financial reports show 25 political action committees (eight liberal and 17 conservative) spent money on behalf of each candidate, with a total of $3.7 million in independent expenditures in opposition to the Democratic challenger O’Connor. The outsized spending against O’Connor suggested he was viewed as a viable challenger to Balderson.

Insights for Arkansas’ 2nd District

Here in Arkansas, the 2nd Congressional District is a contest among Republican incumbent French Hill, Democratic challenger Clarke Tucker and Libertarian nominee Joe Swafford.

Though the amount of campaign spending hasn’t reached anything equivalent to the spending in Ohio, it’s substantive. The fundraising and spending activity of both candidates in this midterm cycle is already more substantial than levels observed in the 2016 campaign and an indication that Tucker is a serious contender.

Republicans haven’t enjoyed long-standing dominance in Arkansas’ 2nd like they have in Ohio’s 12th, but their candidates have won the central Arkansas district by double-digit margins, qualifying the 2nd as a solid Republican district.

As a challenger, then, Tucker must raise his name recognition and awareness of his campaign platform in attempt to overcome Hill’s incumbency advantage. And this is where independent expenditures might make a difference, turning it into a competitive race this fall.

Recent campaign finance disclosures show four groups (two conservative and two liberal) are actively spending in the 2nd District. To date, The House Majority PAC, a liberal-leaning group, has spent the most money — $224,379 — against Hill. This PAC was also active in the Ohio special election and other high-profile competitive primaries this year.

Another election suggesting that outside spending matters was the Kansas 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, where a PAC associated with EMILY’s List helped a dark horse candidate, Sharice Davids, win the party’s nomination in a six-way race to challenge Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder.

With roughly 70 days remaining before Election Day, one key thing to watch is whether Arkansas — like Ohio — sees an influx of outside PAC spending in the’ 2nd District. While the incumbent party holds the advantage here, outside PAC spending could target the district in a way that makes the 2nd Congressional District a national player for the U.S. House on election night.