Arkansas Poll Gets it Right in Governor, U.S. Senate Race

Arkansas Poll Gets it Right in Governor, U.S. Senate Race
The Arkansas Poll shows U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton and Asa Hutchinson with significant leads in their respective races for U.S. Senate and Arkansas governor. (Arkansas Poll)

Most polls correctly placed Republicans Asa Hutchinson and Tom Cotton ahead of their Democratic foes for governor and U.S. Senate. What most did not do is predict the large margin of victory each would enjoy on Election Day.

The Arkansas Poll, released Thursday by the University of Arkansas, was one that did.

Hutchinson defeated Democrat Mike Ross by 13.91 percent, obtaining 55.42 percent of the votes, compared to 41.51 percent for Ross.

The Arkansas Poll gave Hutchinson an 11-point lead. It was one of only two polls to give the GOP candidate a double-digit lead. Public Polling Policy also gave the Republican a double-digit lead, at 10 points.

A Talk Business/Hendrix poll conducted in October gave Hutchinson an 8-point lead, and a Rasmussen poll gave Hutchinson a 7-point lead. A CBS News/New York Times/YouGov poll conducted in September gave Hutchinson an 11-point lead, however, an updated poll in October shrank his lead to 9 points.

For a complete list of gubernatorial polls conducted, click here.

In the U.S. Senate race, Cotton enjoyed a 16.72 percent margin of victory over two-term Democrat U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor. The Arkansas Poll was the only one to give Cotton a double-digit lead at 13 percent.

Talk Business and Public Polling Policy both gave Cotton an 8-point lead. For a complete list of U.S. Senate polls, click here.

Below is a graphic of actual election results, compared to pre-election polls.