Kathy Deck
Arkansans’ expectations for their personal financial situations have improved significantly since the fall, according to the Spring 2016 Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey.
The survey, conducted in March, found that the percent of Arkansas consumers who expect their financial situation to improve over the next year is 38 percent, up from 28 percent in September. Consumers’ assessments of current buying conditions have also improved.
This phase of the Arvest survey includes a study of consumers’ outlooks on personal finances, buying conditions and business conditions.
Kathy Deck, the director of the Center for Business and Economic Research in the Sam M. Walton College of Business at the University of Arkansas, is the lead economist for the survey. She said that in each of the sections of the survey, Arkansas consumers were significantly more optimistic.
“This uptick in outlook is consistent with growth in the labor force and declines in unemployment throughout the state,” Deck said in a news release. “Arkansans reported particular strength in their outlook for their personal finances, which bodes well for retail sales and tax collections in the state.”
The survey also gauges sentiment in Missouri — including Greater Kansas City – and Oklahoma, to other states where Arvest Bank operates. Across the region, 50 percent expect their personal financial situation to stay the same, while 38 percent expect it to improve.
When it came to determining buying conditions, 55 percent of Arkansans think the next six months would be a good time to buy items like furniture, televisions and refrigerators. That’s up from the 51 percent who thought so in September.
And the percentage of Arkansans who think the next six months will be a bad time for major purchases dropped from 30 percent in September to 15 percent in March.
As a whole, expectations for the region declined. Twenty-four percent of regional respondents expected good times for businesses over the next year and 41 percent expected good times over the next five years. That compares to 32 percent (one year) and 43 percent (five years) in September.
This round of survey results also includes a Current Conditions Sub-Index and a Consumer Expectations Sub-Index, which follows the model of the national Thomson/Reuters Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
The Current Conditions Sub-Index is tabulated from the answers to two questions on the survey: “How is your current financial situation compared with a year ago?” and “What do you think of buying conditions over the next six months?” The Current Conditions Sub-Index for Arkansas in March is 91.5, up from September’s 85.5, while the regional index is 90.3 for March.
The Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey is conducted twice a year, with the next survey expected to be completed in August.
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