Current Trends Won’t Continue (Jim Karrh On Marketing)

It is a common four-word phrase that can often lead to flawed strategic marketing decisions: “If current trends continue.”

We are in business-planning season, and many strategic discussions and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) presentations contain that phrase — often accompanied by a bar chart or line chart with a dotted line extending to the year 20-something. The “if” is followed by a “then,” which in turn outlines the implications for the business.

It is important to identify the larger external trends that will most affect your organization in the coming years. But trees still don’t grow to the sky, and executives can find themselves off track without an understanding of whether trends will stall or even reverse.

In a recent TED Talk, the logistics expert Julio Gil spoke about the longstanding trend toward increased urbanization around the world. This megatrend began prior to 1800; today more than half of the world’s population lives in cities. Organizations such as the United Nations and the World Health Organization predict that this trend will only accelerate, so that by 2050 two-thirds of people around the world will live in cities. You can imagine the implications for housing, crime, pollution, real estate values and public transportation planning. In response, urban planners are focusing their energies on a future world full of larger, ever-more-dense cities.

One can’t argue the historical data or its clear pattern. But does that mean we can project it into the future? What if the predictions are off base?

Anyone with a calculator or spreadsheet can find a simple arithmetic pattern. The tough part is to recognize the larger forces driving that pattern, then make an educated guess as to whether those forces will work to the same degree in the future. Plus, leaders are supposed to dust off their crystal balls to identify new forces that could create new patterns.

Gil sees just such a disruption. He believes the convergence of two new technologies — augmented reality and telepresence robots — might just slow or stop the growth of urbanization.

Peering through the lens of logistics, Gil notes that we no longer need to live in a city to have full access to most goods and services. E-commerce will continue to grow. In the past, however, sparsely populated areas have necessarily meant more expensive deliveries. In the near future, drones — particularly those taking off from and landing on moving delivery vehicles — will enable a far different model for delivering e-commerce orders. Says Gil, “Homes of the future will probably have a drone pad in the yard.” He also sees social media and telepresence providing much more access for non-city dwellers to other people, events and culture.

I don’t see the forces Gil cites as powerful enough to completely halt the longstanding urbanization trend. However, I can easily foresee an important segment emerging: professionals who can work from home or elsewhere moving away from cities and suburbs. That would bode well for many areas in Arkansas that are looking to attract more professionals and businesses. Our locales have the benefits Gil cites that come from living outside of cities (lower cost of living, great natural surroundings) and reasonable proximity to many social and shared experiences like festivals, the arts and live music. We certainly have space for those drone pads. That opens a lot of strategic opportunities — and a lot to think about — if you’re in retail, real estate, security, logistics or many other industries.

The larger point is that every time you hear someone assert, “If current trends continue …” (or its cousins such as “At this rate …”), a yellow flag should pop up in your brain. It might be strategically sound to challenge the assertion with two questions: “What are the forces that might counter those trends?” and “How can we be ready to capitalize before others do?”

Jim Karrh of Little Rock is a consultant, coach and professional speaker as well as a consulting principal with DSG. See JimKarrh.com, email him at Jim@JimKarrh.com and follow him on Twitter @JimKarrh.