At the risk of jinxing things, it’s a good time to observe that the year is half over and the widely predicted recession has yet to arrive.
This was brought home by the Labor Department’s release 10 days ago of the June jobs report, which showed an increase of 209,000 jobs. Although the pace of hiring has slowed, that still pushed the U.S. unemployment rate in June down to 3.6% from 3.7% in May.
Even better news for workers: Hourly pay rose 4.4% compared with a year ago, a growth rate faster than the inflation rate of 4% in May.
The labor force participation rate remained at 62.6% in June, below the pre-pandemic rate of 63.3%, but the participation rate for Americans in their prime work years, ages 25 to 54, increased to its highest level since 2002.
Even inflation has moderated, though at 3% in June it remains above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. And the good jobs report means the Fed will likely resume raising interest rates later this month.
Bill Adams, the chief economist for Comerica Bank, told The Wall Street Journal he expects the economy to slow during the second half of the year as the interest rate increases take effect, consumers exhaust savings and student loan payments restart.
So we’re not out of the woods, but we take good news where we can find it.
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