The problem with publishing a story about Arkansas soybean farmers hurt by China’s retaliatory tariffs is that President Donald Trump plays a big role and the entire situation could change in the time it takes Trump to tweet a new pronouncement.
The problem with farming is it’s all about time. Time to get the crops in the ground, assuming you know what you can sell. Time for the crops to grow. Time for markets to develop.
This spring’s rain and flooding have already taken a heavy toll on the farming sector. The trade war with China is only adding to farmers’ pain. And because the agriculture industry is Arkansas’ No. 1 industry, with, according to the Arkansas Farm Bureau, an economic impact of $16 billion, that pain can quickly be felt by other sectors of the state’s economy.
Unfortunately, despite Trump’s assertions of his close relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping, most trade observers don’t see a quick resolution to the dispute. And on Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Xi “plans to present President Trump with a set of terms the U.S. should meet before Beijing is ready to settle a market-rattling trade confrontation, raising questions of whether the two leaders will agree to relaunch talks.”
Among those preconditions, according to the WSJ, are that the United States lift its ban on the sale of technology to Huawei Technologies Co., the Chinese electronics colossus, and that the U.S. remove all punitive tariffs.
These are not easily resolved issues.
Farmers are rightly noted for their optimism. It takes optimism — and grit and hard work — to go out every day and wrest a living from the land. But optimism won’t easily or quickly replace the largest soybean market in the world. And time is not on the farmers’ side.
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