Arkansans were more optimistic in March than six months prior regarding personal finances, and many expect “good times” for businesses over the next five years, according to the latest Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey.
The survey said 30 percent of Arkansans expect their personal financial situation to improve over the next year, and 56 percent think the next six months will be good time to make large purchases.
Conducted in March, the second phase of the spring 2015 survey examined expectations and attitudes of consumers toward current and future finances and general business conditions. Kathy Deck, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research in the Sam M. Walton College of Business at the University of Arkansas, is the lead economist for the survey.
More: Download a summary of the report (PDF).
“It’s not surprising that folks became more optimistic overall because that was the national trend during that time,” Deck said. “The economic situation was improving during that same time period.”
Deck also said low gas prices likely contributed to the March results.
The survey conducted 1,200 random phone surveys in Arkansas, Missouri and Oklahoma. Arkansas’ scores are lower than those of the other two states.
“They are lower this time and they have been consistently,” Deck said. “We don’t have enough to say, ‘Ah, that’s why it is.’ But when we look, it’s consistent. They’ve been moving the same way as the region and the other states. But they’re less optimistic … As long as we keep moving the same direction. What I’d like to see as an economist is for Arkansas to make up ground and look like everybody else. But that would take a significant economic change.”
But Arkansas’ scores are climbing. In October, 32 percent of Arkansans expected “good times” for businesses over the next five years, but in March, that score rose to 39 percent.
In every category for each state and regionally, sub-index scores increased by at least six points. Regionally, 34 percent of survey respondents believe businesses will be having “good times” in a year, compared to 25 percent in October.
The Arkansas current conditions sub-index increased to 89.6 in March compared to 76.3 in October, and the consumer expectations sub-index increased by 9.5 from October to March.
Arkansans were also more optimistic about their expected financial situation in one year. In March, the survey said 30 percent expect to be “better off,” up from 26 percent in October.
Deck said she is hesitant to predict what the next survey’s results will show in September.
“It’s very dangerous to predict what survey responders are going to say,” Deck said. “When we look at what’s going on with national consumer sentiment on a monthly basis, the gains have moderated. Folks have gotten used to having low gas prices. It’ll be interesting to see our own index.”
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