More: Read the Energy Information Administration’s full report.
Crude oil prices are expected to rise and natural gas costs remain low in the near future, according to forecasts released Tuesday by the federal Energy Information Administration.
Global oil consumption forecasts were revised upward by the agency, which now expects Brent crude oil spot prices to average $90 a barrel in the second quarter of this year and $89 per barrel for all of 2024.
Global draws on oil reserves are increasing and the petroleum industry faces ongoing political risks, including repercussions from the Ukraine invasion and persistent attacks on shipping lanes by Houthi rebels based in Yemen.
Natural gas inventories, on the other hand, are at record levels after a warmer-than-usual winter, the agency reported. “Despite lower production, we still expect the United States will have the most natural gas in storage on record when the winter withdrawal season begins in November,” the April forecast said. “We expect the Henry Hub spot price to average less than $2 per million British thermal units” in the second quarter before increasing slightly later in the year. The price forecast for the full year averages about $2.20 per million BTUs.
Residential electricity consumption could increase by almost 4% in 2024 compared to last year, and the EIA expects 7% more cooling degree days — a measure of how hot the temperature is on a given day or during a period of days — than the U.S. saw last summer.
Due to the closing of the Port of Baltimore after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, the EIA cut its forecast for coal experts by more than 30% in April compared with its last monthly forecast. Baltimore is the second largest export hub for coal in the United States.
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