LITTLE ROCK – This week’s primaries in Arkansas will reveal a great deal about the political direction of a state that’s still adjusting to its role as a Republican stronghold.
From an unprecedented chief justice race that’s attracted a $1 million television blitz to a series of intraparty fights hinging on the health care debate, there are plenty of questions that will be answered about the state when polls close Tuesday night.
Some of the biggest issues to watch in the election:
WHOSE GOP IS IT ANYWAY? With favorite son and former Gov. Mike Huckabee out of the picture, the Republican presidential primary will expose where the fault lines are in the party. This is the first presidential primary since Republicans became Arkansas’ majority party, and the decision to move the contest up to March has put the state in the spotlight.
U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio has locked up the party’s establishment, with Gov. Asa Hutchinson backing him and recording television ads touting the Florida senator. Sen. Ted Cruz, meanwhile, enjoys the backing of 18 legislators and the secretary of state – with many representing the more socially conservative wing of the party. Billionaire Donald Trump hasn’t scored similar endorsements, but has proven he can draw crowds in the Natural State.
IS THIS STILL CLINTON COUNTRY? She hasn’t lived in Arkansas since Bill Clinton was elected president in 1992, but Hillary Clinton remains the favorite among Democrats in her adopted home state.
The former secretary of state, who spent 12 years as Arkansas’ first lady, already has the backing of the state’s most prominent Democrats and the support of the five superdelegates. Rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, hasn’t campaigned in the state. That doesn’t mean Clinton’s taking the state for granted. Her campaign’s push has included a recorded phone call from the former president urging Arkansans to cast their ballots early, and she planned a campaign stop Sundayin Pine Bluff.
WILL “ARKANSAS WORKS” WORK? Several Republican legislative primaries around the state will reveal just how uphill of a fight Hutchinson faces in keeping the state’s hybrid Medicaid expansion. Several lawmakers who have previously backed the “private option” expansion are under fire from primary challengers and conservative groups who want the program to end.
Hutchinson, who has called for renaming the expansion “Arkansas Works” and adding new restrictions, has come to their aid and accused critics of trying to mislead voters by portraying the program as an embrace of the federal health law.
The primaries won’t change the Legislature’s makeup when the expansion comes up in an April session, but it could sway some undecided lawmakers and complicate Hutchinson’s hunt for the votes needed to keep the program alive.
ARE WE COURTING DISASTER? The races for two seats on Arkansas’ high court have turned into a judicial campaign unlike anything Arkansas has ever seen before, with outside groups shattering spending records in the state.
The fight between Justice Courtney Goodson and Judge Dan Kemp has turned into a free-for-all that mirrors the vitriol of traditional political campaigns in the state. Goodson entered the race promising to represent “conservative values” and enjoys the backing of the NRA. At the same time, she’s being targeted by two conservative groups — the Judicial Crisis Network and the Republican State Leadership Committee’s Judicial Fairness Initiative — with a series of ads and mailers.
The results could show just how much sway outside groups have on the state, and the coming months may indicate whether their involvement helps spur the push by some lawmakers to end the popular election of justices.
Andrew DeMillo has covered Arkansas government and politics for The Associated Press since 2005. Follow him on Twitter at Twitter.com/ademillo.
(Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)
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