More: Read the Energy Information Administration’s full report.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts flat gasoline prices and crude oil prices to average about $90 per barrel for the rest of this year.
Those predictions came Tuesday in EIA’s short term energy outlook for May, released on Tuesday.
The outlook said voluntary oil production cuts by oil exporting nations and “ongoing geopolitical risks” will keep the Brent crude oil spot price near $90 per barrel “for the remainder of 2024 before falling to an average of $85 [per barrel] in 2025 as oil production growth picks up.”
The forecast expects domestic retail gasoline prices to average near $3.70 per gallon through September, “which is similar to prices during the same period last year.”
The agency cited refinery operations as a reason for uncertainty in predicting gasoline prices over the summer.
The agency expects natural gas prices to stay low, and for gas production to fall by 2% from the first quarter of this year “as a result of low natural gas prices.” The EIA expects production to rebound next year to a record of almost 89 billion cubic feet per day.
The Henry Hub natural gas price has risen for the past two weeks from $1.61 per million British thermal units on April 22 to $2.20 at Monday’s close. The price is very low from a historical view; in June 2008, the Henry Hub price reached $13.28 per million BTU.
The EIA said solar power continues to be the fastest growing form of electricity generation, but it noted that coal exports have surged with deliveries from Appalachia. “We now expect U.S. coal exports in 2024 will be almost unchanged from 2024. However, we still expect coal production will decline by 14% in 2024 to about 500 million short tons and then fall by about 1% next year,” the forecast said.
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